Macro policies drive up SS futures, while the activity of spot cargo improves but it is hard to change the off-season foundation [SMM Stainless Steel Futures Weekly Review]

According to SMM data, the most-traded SS contract showed a strengthening and upward trend this week. As of 10:30 on July 25, the SS2509 contract was quoted at 12,940 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt WoW.

Macro perspective, last week, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) announced that it would soon introduce a steady growth work plan for ten key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals. The plan emphasizes promoting the exit of outdated capacity and optimizing the supply structure, boosting market expectations for steel production cuts and supporting the short-term strength of stainless steel futures. The "anti-rat race" competition policy continues to deepen, with multiple departments joining hands to combat low-price and disorderly competition, accelerating the exit of inefficient capacity and expected to alleviate surplus pressure. The US and Indonesia have reached a tariff agreement, setting the tax rate on Indonesian products at 19%. Additionally, the US plans to impose unified tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% on over 150 minor trading partners globally, and the subsequent impact on exports still requires close attention.

Fundamentals-wise, driven by the strengthening of the stainless steel futures market this week, the spot market's activity significantly increased, with inquiries and transactions both showing a recovery trend, and spot quotes also rising accordingly. This week, social inventory continued to decline, achieving a three-week consecutive drop. However, the market is still in the traditional consumption off-season, and the current recovery is mainly strongly driven by macro news. But it will take time for policies to be implemented, and whether market activity can be sustained in the near term still faces significant challenges.